Remember, remember, the 4th of November
Until now, Iranians and Americans have remembered the date Nov. 4 for only one reason: It was the day in 1979 when a mob of Iranian students stormed the US embassy in Tehran and took 52 diplomats and other US citizens hostage. They were in captivity for 444 days in what remains the longest hostage crisis in history.
Now, the date will be remembered for another reason. US President Donald Trump is about to reimpose tough sanctions on Iran’s oil trader and banking system, a consequence of his withdrawal from the 2015 agreement to curb Tehran’s nuclear program.
The regime in Tehran has been doing its best in the past few months to find a way to avoid these sanctions, mainly by working with the European Union, but it is still struggling to persuade its citizens that any such mechanism will work.
Iranians suffered a great deal under the sanctions that were lifted by the nuclear deal in July 2015; they are not ready for a new round of sanctions that Trump has promised will be tougher and more painful than before.
On social media, Iranians are stressed, fearful and angry. They want to know what to expect, and how the new sanctions will affect their standard of living. The Iranian economy is already broken and there is no trust between ordinary Iranians and the regime; indeed, as far as I can see, no one wants to be angry with President Trump — they blame their own leaders for lack of wisdom.
The US sanctions waiver will help the market to avoid an immediate price shock, which Trump would not welcome with the US mid-term elections coming on Nov. 6.
Camelia Entekhabifard
Trump has made it clear that he is unhappy with Iran’s regional meddling, such as Tehran’s involvement in the wars in Syria and Yemen. He accuses Tehran of using its oil revenues to fund the activities of militias such as Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and Hamas, and he has pledged to cut off this source of income.
Eight countries will not be penalized by the US for continuing to import Iranian oil, and those revenues will help Iran, although not by enough to allow Tehran to continue financing regional conflicts. Iranian oil exports have already dropped by about 800,000 barrels per day from their peak. It was still selling up to 1.9 million bpd in September, but this is expected to fall to 1 million bpd by the end of November. The US sanctions waiver will help the market to avoid an immediate price shock, which Trump would not welcome with the US mid-term elections coming on Nov. 6.
Already it seems that Oman is involved in back-channel negotiations between Tehran, Washington and Tel Aviv to address concerns such as the presence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria, and Iranian support for the Houthi militias in Yemen. Perhaps these talks have led to the sanctions waivers, to new talks on Yemen, and to a new UN envoy for Syria.
But only time will tell if Iran’s regional policy has changed sufficiently to satisfy Trump and achieve his goals.
- Camelia Entekhabifard is an Iranian-American journalist, political commentator and author of Camelia: Save Yourself By Telling the Truth (Seven Stories Press, 2008). Twitter: @CameliaFard
